When I was 27 I accepted that I would die. I moved past the conceptual fear and revulsion of death and was able to see death more objectively and impartially. This changed my life because it allowed me to be realistic about how much time I have. Everything I want to do must be prioritized so it happens before I die. I do not know when or how I will die, so how can I make sure I get everything done?
My initial response to the uncertainty of death was to get everything done as soon as possible. Any day could be my last so each day I wait is a day I am not prioritizing what is important. A bias towards not waiting is good, but larger goals can’t be rushed. I need advanced skills to make an impact in the modern world and it takes time to build those skills. How much time should I spend building those skills compared to applying them under the uncertainty of death?
I can approach this tricky problem by making assumptions. Let’s say my impact on the world is measured solely by the number of logs I chop with my axe. Each year of my life I can spend chopping wood or sharpening my axe. How many years should I spend sharpening my axe and how many years should I spend chopping wood?
To approach the uncertainty of death I took some actuarial data from the US Social Security Administration which shows the expected number of deaths at each age for a representative population of 100,000 males in 2020.
Using this data, I wrote a simple Python script that calculates the optimal number of years to spend sharpening my axe before transitioning to chopping wood across all death scenarios. I calculated the optimal number of years to maximize the average outcome (meaning logs chopped), 90th percentile outcome, and 99th percentile outcome. I also compared linear axe sharpening (each year spent sharpening the axe makes it the same amount sharper), exponential axe sharpening (each year spent sharpening the axe increases its sharpness more than the previous) and logarithmic axe sharpening (each year spent sharpening the axe increases its sharpness less than the previous).
| Optimal Years Sharpening for Average Outcome | Optimal Years Sharpening for 90th Percentile Outcome | Optimal Years Sharpening for 99th Percentile Outcome | |
| Logarithmic Axe Sharpening | 32 | 39 | 42 |
| Linear Axe Sharpening | 38 | 45 | 48 |
| Exponential Axe Sharpening | 40 | 47 | 51 |
I find it surprising that I can spend the first half of my life (or even more) just sharpening my axe and still maximize my chopped wood. Even including the uncertainty of death! This raises some questions for me that I challenge you to ponder.
When you sharpen your axe, how much sharper does it get? Does it get much sharper or just a little sharper? Can you get better at sharpening your axe? Are you aiming to maximize your average lifetime logs chopped? What about your 99th percentile logs chopped? Based on the answers to those questions, are you investing enough in yourself?
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